| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | UTEP | 28-16 | 1325.5 | +23.1 | 1348.6 | 66.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 22-44 | 1348.6 | -10.9 | 1337.7 | 16.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Air Force | 49-30 | 1337.7 | +48.0 | 1385.7 | 36.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | McNeese | 48-7 | 1385.7 | +0.0 | 1385.7 | 34.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Vanderbilt | 35-55 | 1385.7 | -11.1 | 1374.6 | 17.1% |
| 8 | Oct 12 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 26-44 | 1374.6 | -33.1 | 1341.5 | 46.7% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | W | San José State | 30-25 | 1341.5 | +33.8 | 1375.3 | 52.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | New Mexico | 14-33 | 1375.3 | -37.8 | 1337.5 | 52.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Nevada | 51-14 | 1337.5 | +11.1 | 1348.6 | 82.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UNLV | 26-29 | 1348.6 | -10.8 | 1337.8 | 16.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Fresno State | 28-17 | 1337.8 | +65.6 | 1403.4 | 28.8% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Boise State | 24-25 | 1403.4 | -26.5 | 1376.9 | 24.8% |
| 19 | Dec 22 2025 | L | Washington State | 21-34 | 1376.9 | -38.4 | 1338.5 | 45.2% |